Tier One PicksFree — no account

Fantasy football projections that show their work.

Most rankings hand you one number and ask you to trust it. Tier One Picks gives you a range, scored for your league's actual rules — and publishes how often it was right.

Why it's different

Built for your league, not a generic one

Half-PPR with a TE premium and a superflex? The numbers are recomputed for that, so a QB doesn't get ranked like it's a 1QB league.

A range, not false precision

Every player gets a floor, a median and a ceiling. Football is uncertain — projections that hide that are lying to you.

We publish when we're wrong

There's an accuracy page showing our track record, misses included. It's the thing we'd want to see before trusting anyone else's numbers.

What it looks like

Real numbers from the 2026 board — not mock-ups with invented figures.

Rankings — 2026 PPR, ranked by value

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA · Tier 1

278

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL · Tier 1

268

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET · Tier 1

271

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET · Tier 1

258

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN · Tier 2

250

Every player gets a floor, a median and a ceiling. The bar is the range; the mark is the median.

Live draft room — on the clock

On the clock

Bijan Robinson is Tier 1 at running back, and the drop to the next tier is 30.1 points. Waiting costs more than the players it saves.

Bijan Robinson

RB · ATL · Tier 1

ADP 3.0

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · DET · Tier 1

ADP 4.1

Breece Hall

RB · NYJ · Tier 2

Tier drop

It tells you who to take and why, while the clock runs.

Ask about your league

Should I trade Gibbs for Chase?

Close, and it depends what you need. Gibbs projects 258 with a 128–362 range; Chase projects 250 across 153–323. Gibbs has the higher ceiling, Chase the safer floor — if you're chasing a playoff seed, take the floor.

Grounded in: projections · 2026 board

Answers cite the numbers behind them, and say so when they don't have the data.

Free tools, no account needed

Use these right now — they run entirely in your browser and store nothing.

Draft order randomizer — with a live race your league can watch
Vig calculator, implied probability, arbitrage

What it costs

One payment for the season. It does not renew, and there is nothing to cancel.

Free

Top 20 rankings
One mock draft, through round 2
All four calculators, no account needed

Season Pass

Launch price

~~$39~~$29.99once

Regular price $39. One payment for the whole season — it does not renew.

Every ranking, every position, every scoring format
Live draft room and unlimited mocks
Trades, waivers, start/sit, playoff odds
300 AI messages for the season

No subscription and no auto-renewal — when next season comes round, you decide again. Need more AI? Add 200 messages for $10, any time. Full refund within 7 days if you have not started a draft.

Coming after launch

Sports betting analytics and DFS tools are in development — the same modelling approach applied to different questions. Fantasy football comes first, and comes first properly.

Get in before the season starts

We'll email you once when it opens up. That's the only email you'll get from us.