How to read your projections

Tier One Picks doesn't give you one single "the projection" number — it gives you a range, plus context for how that range compares to the market and to your league's roster math. Here's what each piece means.

Floor, median, ceiling

On the Rankings board, you can switch how players are ranked between Floor, Median, and Ceiling. These are percentiles of a player's projected outcome range, not three separate guesses:

• Floor (10th percentile) — a conservative, "bad week" outcome. Ranking by floor surfaces the safer, more consistent players.
• Median (50th percentile) — the balanced, most-likely outcome. This is the default rank and the number used for tier groupings on Rankings' Season view; the Rest-of-Season view ranks by VOR instead (see below).
• Ceiling (90th percentile) — a "everything breaks right" outcome. Ranking by ceiling surfaces higher-upside, boom-or-bust players.

Value vs ADP

Where market ADP (Average Draft Position) data is available for a player, Rankings shows how our rank compares to it — for example "+8 vs ADP" means we rank that player 8 spots better than where the market is drafting them (a possible value), while a negative number flags a possible reach relative to ADP. Players with no market ADP (common for deep or undrafted names) simply don't show this badge.

VOR and VONA in the Draft room

The Draft room's pick recommendations lean on two related-but-different value numbers:

• VOR (Value Over Replacement) — how many points a player is projected to score above "replacement level": the best player at that position you could still get for free later (off waivers or deep on the board), given your league's exact roster and scoring settings.
• The number the Draft room actually shows and ranks players by is a risk-adjusted VOR, not the plain median VOR above. It's weighted toward a conservative, downside outcome rather than the most-likely one — so an injury-flagged or boom-or-bust player will show a lower number here than a simple "points above replacement" read would suggest. That's intentional: it's meant to protect you from overpaying for upside that carries real bust risk.
• VONA (Value Over Next Available) — points you'd stand to lose at that position specifically if you wait until your next pick, based on who's likely to be gone by then. It's the same kind of value number made draft-context-aware: a high VONA at a position means that position's value is about to fall off a cliff before your next turn.

Putting it together

Use floor/ceiling to match players to your risk tolerance for a given roster spot, use the ADP badge to sanity-check whether you're getting value or reaching, and — on draft day specifically — let VONA flag when a position is about to dry up before your next turn.